| Objective: ||To conduct and explore the implications of effects-based operations on the conduct of combat assessment.
|| Description: ||The Assessment step, an intelligence function, of the Monitor, Assess, Plan, Engage loop places great importance on the need to assess the effects of an attack in order to determine the need for immediate re-attack. Effects-based operations (EBO) include the creation and assessment of intermediate as well as cascading effects in attaining the end-state objective derived from the commander’s intent and guidance. These effects may be achieved through the application of kinetic (i.e., high explosive) and/or non-kinetic (e.g., cyber-warfare) weapons. Combat assessment in the context of EBO presents particular challenges in that simple physical destruction may no longer be the sole, meaningful indicator of attack effectiveness. Current assessment systems/practices were derived from past experience with aerial bombardment. There was a direct connection between the size and location of bomb craters and the damage inflicted on the target. The analyst conducting combat assessment in an effects-based operational context now requires innovative tools to assist in carrying out this function. Effects may be non-physical and may be intermediate to the achieving of the desired end-state. Research in cognitive (and, possibly, perceptual) process and in analyst-system interface is required to develop and demonstrate assessment tools appropriate to EBO. Cognitive tasks analyses, a component of a structured cognitive systems engineering process, are required to identify analyst requirements. Capability-based measures of effectiveness are required to support the evaluation of effects-based assessment performance. Assessment tools are required which will be demonstrated to satisfy the speed, accuracy, completeness and analyst confidence of these measures.
|| ||PHASE I: Identify and define opportunities for inserting intelligence analyst-aiding technologies appropriate to the conduct of combat assessment tasks in the context of effects-based operations.
|| || ||PHASE II: Develop and demonstrate intelligence analyst-aiding capabilities for the conduct of effects-based combat assessment. Conduct an example of capability evaluation by applying appropriate capability-based measures of effectiveness.
|| ||DUAL USE COMMERCIALIZATION: Military application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible especially to the military intelligence, homeland security and homeland defense communities. Commercial application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible. Similar tools to those to be expected to result from this research can be expected to have application to market research, public opinion polling, and consumer advertising campaign assessment.
|| References: ||1. Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community
2. Effects-Based Operations: Change in the Nature of Warfare
3. Air Force Doctrine Document 2-8, Command and Control, 16 Feb 2001
4. Combat Assessment
|Keywords: ||Effects-based operations,combat assessment, measures of effectiveness,analyst-aiding|